Fictional accounts of swarms are often terrifying. Genetically engineered invertebrates and aliens with the capacity to munch out an entire world are common, as well as nanomachines of many different types. One popular but unlikely end-of-the-world scenario, known as “grey goo,” involves swarms of self-replicating robots consuming the entire biosphere.
More terrifying, though, is when truth takes inspiration from the imagination. On Jan. 5, 2017, the first recorded drone swarm attack was conducted against Russian forces in Syria. A total of 13 visibly homemade drones were used on two Russian bases, half of which were brought down by electrical means and the other half taken down by anti-aircraft missiles. Once again, a weapon originally relegated to science fiction has become reality.
This is far from the first time fictional weapons have been reproduced in reality. Robert A. Heinlein’s Solution Unsatisfactory, published before 1945, posited the use of radioactive dust as a weapon. However, it turns out that fission weapons are much more effective than conventional weapons at spreading radiation around an area. Biological warfare also remains an open possibility. Although it is very difficult to engineer a new deadly, contagious, and airborne virus, many nations are thought to still have stores of smallpox, a deadly virus no longer widely vaccinated against.
Weaponized robots were always popular in literature as well, from Karel Capek’s play, R.U.R., to more recent mechas in Pacific Rim. In reality, humanoid robots are very rare; the closest real analogues are powered exoskeletons developed for rehabilitating patients who have partially lost use of their limbs and for reducing fatigue in military personnel. Lasers and rayguns, too, have real equivalents in the Active Denial System, a large millimeter-wave reflector that heats the top layers of the target’s skin to inflict pain without injury, and high-powered lasers ranging in applications from anti-aircraft weaponry to harvesting lightning energy.
Technological feasibility is often not the greatest barrier to seeing these weapons in reality. Rather, economic reasons place severe limitations on the adoption of new technology. Humanoid robots have very few uses because, aside from novelty or safety reasons, anything that can be done by a humanoid robot can also be done by a human—hence their scarcity.
Another example is weaponized lasers. After the discovery of the optical Kerr effect, the fact that a strong electric field (such as those in a high-powered laser) can affect the refractive index of a material, allowed for self-focusing lasers that can travel much greater distances, lasers were found to be useful in anti-aircraft applications due their speed and range. The Strategic Defense Initiative, President Ronald Reagan’s proposed missile defense system, focused on the use of various types of lasers; however, the initiative ultimately failed to achieve its goals because as a general purpose weapon, lasers are extremely inefficient, even theoretically. Not only do lasers have inefficiencies converting electrical energy to light, but to penetrate an object, a laser would require enough energy to evaporate everything in its path. A conventional weapon, such as a projectile or explosive, would only need to push the same material away. Conventional weapons have had a long time to perfect themselves; for new technology to gain a foothold, it must beat old technology and be worth its initial investment.
Autonomous swarms, however, have a clear economic incentive. Humans are very expensive. The materials required to build autonomous swarms are comparatively very inexpensive. Technology is currently expensive, but as time progresses and patents expire, technology will progressively become less expensive, and therefore at some point, it is inevitable that humans will be replaced. Automation is quickly replacing human jobs; in no way is warfare excluded, and the results can have far-reaching consequences.
Science fiction often exaggerates the effects of technology. However, it does present possibilities to humanity that should not be ignored. If human power alone is unable to stand a chance against the destructive capability of a drone army, then whoever is in control of those drones, likely the wealthy, would be in control of the world. Then, through what means could we ensure that we continue to distribute power evenly among all people, regardless of material wealth? It is probably unlikely that some rogue artificial intelligence like Terminator’s Skynet will take control of the world, but replace Skynet with an autonomous swarm controlled by a group with material wealth, and the resistance with those without material wealth, and we get a somewhat more realistic scenario—or at least one that is worth some thought.